Overview
- ICRA projects industrywide wholesale growth of about 3–6% in FY27, with passenger vehicles at 4–6%, commercial vehicles at 4–6%, and buses stronger at 7–9%.
- CRISIL expects two-wheeler volumes to rise 7–9% next fiscal to roughly 29 million units, with domestic demand steady and exports continuing to outpace the home market.
- Exports account for about 20% of two-wheeler volumes, with CRISIL citing a 21–23% rise this fiscal and forecasting mid‑to‑high‑teen growth in FY27 across Latin America, Africa and South Asia.
- Analysts highlight premiumisation—more scooters and higher‑capacity motorcycles—and rising electrification as key structural drivers, even as entry‑level motorcycle demand lags.
- CRISIL sees industry revenue growing 10–12% next fiscal with operating margins near 16% and capex around ₹6,000 crore, while elevated commodity costs and higher inventories remain key risks.