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Australia’s November Spending Jumps, Fueling Bets on 2026 RBA Hikes

Markets now price a likely May move with inflation still above target.

Overview

  • ABS data show the monthly household spending indicator rose 1.0% to A$79.4 billion in November after a revised 1.4% gain in October.
  • Annual spending growth accelerated to 6.3%, the fastest pace since September 2023.
  • Goods outlays climbed 0.9% on Black Friday discounts, while services rose 1.2% on concerts and sporting events.
  • Eight of nine spending categories increased and every state recorded gains, led by Tasmania with a 2.1% rise.
  • Interest rate swaps imply about a 25% chance of a February RBA hike and roughly 76% for May, with inflation at 3.4% headline and 3.2% core above the 2–3% target.