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Australia’s Housing Market Splits as Sydney and Melbourne Top‑End Falls and Perth Surges

Rising interest rates together with federal tax and deposit changes are lifting mortgage costs and changing investor incentives.

Overview

  • The Reserve Bank paused its rate moves on Tuesday after three increases earlier this year that have materially raised mortgage repayments and cut buyers’ borrowing capacity.
  • House values in Sydney and Melbourne have declined across most price tiers with the upper quartile—family homes—falling about 4% over the three months to the end of May.
  • Perth has recorded the strongest gains, up about 25.8% year‑on‑year, and the household income needed to afford a median Perth house has risen to roughly $123,787 from $107,329 in January.
  • Federal measures including a 5% deposit scheme and proposed limits on negative gearing and capital gains concessions are cooling investor activity in some segments while keeping competition in the lower quartile.
  • Economists warn the pattern could widen into a broader correction, pointing to growing vendor discounts, rising affordability barriers and spring listings as the key near‑term test.