Overview
- Australia’s budget, presented Tuesday by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, commits A$14.8 billion over four years, including a A$3 billion temporary cut to petrol and diesel excise to ease pump prices.
- Treasury’s central case assumes oil stays near US$100 before easing to US$80 by mid next year, with GDP growth trimmed to 1.75% in 2026–27 and inflation at about 5% through the June 2026 quarter.
- The severe scenario models oil spiking to US$200 and staying high for three years, pushing inflation above 7% and unemployment back to pre‑pandemic levels, though Treasury still expects no recession.
- The near term budget gains about A$9.5 billion from stronger coal and gas receipts, yet gross debt is projected to top A$1 trillion in 2027 and reach about A$1.249 trillion by the end of the forecast period.
- To shore up energy security, the government is funding new fuel reserves and storage, lifting onshore diesel and jet fuel to 50 days, and reserving 20% of gas exports for local use from next year, while reports differ on when oil falls back to US$80.