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Australia Forecasts Sharply Smaller Wheat Crop at 26.7 Million Tonnes

Rising fertiliser and fuel costs linked to Gulf shipping disruptions, a forecast El Niño and surging pest pressure heighten yield risk and could lift global wheat prices.

Overview

  • ABARES said Tuesday that Australia's wheat harvest is forecast to fall about 26% to 26.7 million tonnes and that the area planted will drop roughly 12% to 10.9 million hectares, the smallest since 2019–20.
  • The agriculture report says fertiliser and fuel prices have jumped after war-related disruptions to Gulf deliveries, and that farmers are likely to apply less fertiliser which will cut yield potential.
  • Large parts of eastern Australia have seen months of below‑median rainfall, May showers gave only partial relief, and the Bureau of Meteorology's emerging El Niño signal raises further downside risk to winter crops.
  • Authorities reported surging mouse numbers in Western and South Australia and granted a conditional emergency permit for stronger baiting as growers move to protect crops and stored grain.
  • The report warns that lower output and rising input costs are already tightening world supplies after U.S. crop losses, squeezing farm incomes and pushing wheat prices higher with likely knock‑on effects for exports to Asia and the Middle East.