August Clashes and Drone Strikes Put Fragile Tigray Peace at Risk

Overview

• Fighting near Shererina and reported drone strikes in Merewa and near Mekelle in August 2026 have been treated as serious violations of the Pretoria Agreement and have raised fears of escalation in northern Ethiopia.
• Key Pretoria commitments remain unfulfilled: Tigrayan forces have not fully disarmed, non-federal and foreign forces have not withdrawn, and Western Tigray (Welkait) has not been returned to local Tigrayan administration.
• Rivalry over Red Sea access, especially tensions around the Eritrean port of Assab, has politicized the peace process and linked Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions to the stalled implementation of the agreement.
• The federal government’s ability to contain renewed conflict is limited by concurrent insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia, constrained ENDF capacity, and growing regional pressure from actors such as Eritrea, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, the UAE, and Turkey.
• Civilians remain the primary victims: hundreds of thousands displaced in Western Tigray face ongoing rights abuses and restricted returns, and analysts warn that renewed fighting could broaden into a wider Horn of Africa crisis with cross-border consequences.