Overview
- The Cour des comptes estimated on Wednesday that the Middle East war will add about €3 billion to the Sécurité sociale deficit in 2026 and €5 billion in 2027.
- The Commission des comptes projects the 2026 shortfall could reach €23.2 billion, which is well above the government's December forecast of €19.4 billion.
- Paris has used short-term offsets in 2026, including a €15 billion Cades debt transfer, €9 billion in advanced pharma rebates and a freeze of some employer reliefs, but auditors judge these moves insufficient for medium-term balance.
- The auditors point to weaker payroll growth that cuts social contributions, inflation-driven revaluation of benefits and higher energy prices as the main drivers of the deterioration.
- To reach balance by 2030 the Cour calls for about €10 billion a year in sustained measures, listing politically sensitive steps such as widening medical franchises, tightening transport reimbursements, shortening inadequate hospital stays and reducing fraud, with final decisions pending at the next public committee on June 26.