Overview
- An AtlasIntel survey found Secretary of State Marco Rubio leading a hypothetical GOP primary with 45.4% to Vice President JD Vance’s 29.6%, while Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez narrowly topped the Democratic field over Pete Buttigieg.
- The poll, conducted May 4–7 among 2,069 U.S. adults, tested crowded primary matchups even though no one has announced a 2028 campaign.
- The result is the first reported poll to put Rubio ahead, yet other polling and RealClearPolitics averages still show Vance with a wide lead, and a separate survey reported by Breitbart had Vance at 40% to Rubio’s 14%.
- President Donald Trump praised a potential Vance–Rubio pairing as a “dream team” and informally sounded out audiences on both men, but he said he is not endorsing anyone.
- The same survey recorded strong concern about inflation and the conflict with Iran, suggesting shifting prices and foreign tensions could move opinions well before the race formally begins.