Atlas 2026 Finds Social Mobility Locked in Brazil

Overview

• The IMDS and Prospera Lab published the Atlas da Mobilidade Social 2026 using linked tax, payroll, social program and IBGE survey data that follow roughly 7 million Brazilians born 1983–1990.
• Nearly half of people born in the poorest 25% of households remain in that quartile as adults, with 48% staying poor and only 8.32% reaching the top 25%.
• People born to middle-class parents have a 17.57% average chance of reaching the top 25%, but state differences are large, ranging from about 8% in Amazonas to about 27% in Santa Catarina.
• Education is a central barrier to mobility: just 1.58% of those from the poorest quartile complete higher education compared with 37.77% of those from the richest quartile.
• The Atlas documents sharp intersectional gaps—women and non-white people born poor face much worse odds of leaving poverty—and shows only small cohort gains across generations, underscoring policy needs on schooling, jobs and public services.