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11h ago

Atlantic Sets Record for Latest First Hurricane as Season Remains Unusually Quiet

A powerful El Niño is producing record-strength upper-level winds that have suppressed storm formation across the Atlantic.

FILE - Connor Hughes and Kaylee Swenson walk through floodwaters from the Alafia River caused by Hurricane Milton, Oct. 11, 2024, in Lithia, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara, File)
FILE - Boats sit on dry ground as water levels have dropped on the Danube River in Petrovaradin, Serbia, Aug. 25, 2026. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic, File)
FILE - Waves roll in from the Gulf of Mexico toward lots where only empty foundations and debris remain after homes were swept away in Hurricane Milton on Manasota Key in Englewood, Fla., Oct. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)
Janny Vancedarfield sits in front of the debris that was once his house in Florida City, Florida, on September 1, 1992, after it was destroyed by Hurricane Andrew.

Overview

  • The season reached Sept. 12 with no hurricanes, the longest wait for a first Atlantic hurricane in the satellite-era at roughly 103 days.
  • Forecasters and researchers say a very strong El Niño has driven record-high vertical wind shear over the basin, which has repeatedly torn apart developing storms.
  • Measured activity is extremely low with only five short-lived named storms so far and accumulated cyclone energy at the lowest value through this date since 1950.
  • The National Hurricane Center expects no tropical development in the coming week, but some private forecasters still see a modest late-season uptick and the Gulf of Mexico remains a known area where storms could form.
  • El Niño has shifted activity into the eastern and central Pacific, producing well-above-normal hurricane activity and raising concern that leftover warm Atlantic waters could increase the odds of a busier season next year.