Overview
- As of Tuesday, Sept. 8, forecasters say no tropical development is expected in the Atlantic over the next seven days.
- Large plumes of dry Saharan air are reducing shower and thunderstorm formation while El Niño-driven upper-level wind shear is preventing storms from organizing.
- If no hurricane forms before Sept. 11, the basin would record the latest first hurricane in the modern satellite record, which began in the mid-1960s.
- Meanwhile, Category 2 Hurricane Lowell is making a close pass to Kauai, bringing hurricane-force winds, more than a foot of rain in spots, and elevated risk of flash floods and mudslides for residents.
- Climatologically the season peaks in early to mid-September, so conditions could change; forecasters warn short-term quiet does not rule out late-season activity and they will watch for weaker dust transport or reduced shear that would permit storms to develop.