Overview
- As of Oct. 2, 2026 the Atlantic produced zero hurricanes through the end of September, an outcome not seen in the reliable modern record.
- Scientists attribute the shutdown to a very strong El Niño that has increased upper-level wind shear and sinking air over the main development region, conditions that tear storms apart as they try to form.
- The basin’s activity metrics are far below normal this year: the Atlantic has fewer named storms than average and an exceptionally low accumulated cyclone energy, signaling weaker and shorter-lived systems.
- Forecasters say the short-term chance of new storms remains low but are shifting focus to the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean for October development, where stalled fronts or a Central American Gyre can still trigger land-impacting storms.
- The National Hurricane Center will reanalyze season data after November 30 and could upgrade Tropical Storm Fay to a hurricane, which would change the official record; historically, only two pre-satellite years (1907 and 1914) lacked Atlantic hurricanes.