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13h ago

Atlantic Reaches Satellite‑Era Record as First Hurricane Still Has Not Formed

Forecasters attribute the lull to a very strong El Niño that is producing extreme upper‑level wind shear, Saharan dust and sinking air that suppresses Atlantic storm growth.

FILE - Connor Hughes and Kaylee Swenson walk through floodwaters from the Alafia River caused by Hurricane Milton, Oct. 11, 2024, in Lithia, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara, File)
FILE - Boats sit on dry ground as water levels have dropped on the Danube River in Petrovaradin, Serbia, Aug. 25, 2026. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic, File)
FILE - Waves roll in from the Gulf of Mexico toward lots where only empty foundations and debris remain after homes were swept away in Hurricane Milton on Manasota Key in Englewood, Fla., Oct. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)
El Niño is creating more widespread wind shear across the Atlantic that inhibits tropical formation. (WPEC)

Overview

  • The National Hurricane Center confirmed on Sept. 11 that the 2026 season has passed the satellite‑era record for the latest formation of the first Atlantic hurricane.
  • Researchers say an unusually strong El Niño has increased upper‑level wind shear, injected dry Saharan air and forced downward motion that together prevent tropical storms from organizing and intensifying.
  • Colorado State University analysis finds basin activity at roughly 7% of normal for this point in the year using intensity‑and‑duration metrics such as ACE.
  • The NHC is monitoring a disorganized trough about 1,000 miles east‑southeast of Bermuda with near‑zero formation odds over 48 hours and about a 30% chance over seven days, and forecasters say immediate U.S. impacts are unlikely.
  • Forecasters warn the Gulf of Mexico and late‑season processes remain pockets of risk and that if El Niño weakens while Atlantic waters stay warm, the 2027 season could become much more active.