Overview
- Researchers, including a UC Santa Cruz team, estimate roughly a 4.3% lunar‑impact probability, while refined tracking has reduced Earth‑impact risk to negligible levels.
- Scenario modeling projects a crater about one kilometer wide, a visible flash lasting minutes, a prolonged infrared afterglow, and lunar seismic waves near magnitude 5 if an impact occurs.
- Simulations suggest around 100 million kilograms of ejecta could escape the Moon, potentially producing intense meteor activity days later and posing short‑term risks to satellites.
- NASA and international networks have activated standard notification and coordination channels, with updates posted to systems such as Sentry and engagement through IAWN and SMPAG.
- Current tracking uses assets including the James Webb Space Telescope and ESO’s Very Large Telescope, though ground‑based visibility is expected to wane around April 2026 until a better viewing window in 2028.