Particle.news
Download on the App Store

ASML Reinforces Monopoly as Analysts Lift Targets and Board Clears €12 Billion Buyback

Strong margins, recurring service revenue, a multi‑year backlog underpin analyst forecasts for AI-driven demand despite export limits to China.

Overview

  • ASML reported robust fiscal Q1 2026 results with €8.8 billion in net sales, a 53.0% gross margin, and €2.8 billion in net income while guiding Q2 sales between €8.4 billion and €9.0 billion.
  • The company holds roughly a $45 billion year‑end backlog that gives multi‑year revenue visibility because EUV systems take years to qualify and deliver.
  • Management raised the 2025 dividend and authorized a €12 billion share buyback program through 2028 that analysts say is funded by strong free cash flow.
  • Several banks raised price targets this month and forecast accelerating sales of EUV and high‑NA tools as AI demand boosts capacity plans, while noting China demand may lag.
  • Near‑term risks include tightened export controls and weaker China sales, so investors are watching new order flow, customer qualifications for high‑NA systems, and upcoming earnings for demand confirmation.