Overview
- ASML is set to report second-quarter results on July 15 with analysts widely expecting a beat-and-raise that could lift its full-year revenue outlook.
- China's share of ASML system sales has fallen from the mid-30s percent in late 2025 to about 19–20% in early 2026 as the company denies selling advanced EUV tools to China.
- U.S. proposals such as the MATCH Act name ASML and seek tighter allied export controls on DUV and EUV gear, a policy risk that could further reduce China sales and push global supply chains to split.
- ASML aims to ship 60 low-NA EUV tools in 2026 and 80 in 2027 and says it could squeeze out as many as 90 without adding factory space while suppliers like Trumpf and Zeiss report steps to scale long-lead parts.
- Because ASML is the only maker of EUV machines used for the most advanced chips, its bookings, shipments and commentary serve as a leading indicator for chip capacity, prices and the broader AI hardware ecosystem.