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ASML Rally Bolstered by Analyst Upgrades and €12 Billion Buyback

July 15 earnings will test whether a fuller 2027 order book and production efficiencies can translate into higher deliveries.

Overview

  • Major sell‑side firms raised price targets in late June, with Bank of America lifting its target to $2,345 and Wells Fargo and JPMorgan also increasing forecasts based on higher expected EUV unit output.
  • Analysts cited production efficiencies and the view that ASML can push unit volumes above prior guidance without building new clean rooms, which underpins the recent upward revisions to revenue and EPS estimates.
  • ASML’s board approved a €12 billion share buyback in mid‑June, a corporate move that has reinforced investor confidence and supported the stock’s move to fresh highs.
  • Appaloosa Management’s long‑running position in ASML was highlighted in coverage, with the fund’s most recent reported stake at about 46,500 shares valued near $65 million.
  • Key risks remain export limits to China, long customer qualification for next‑generation High‑NA tools, and the high cost of those systems, so markets are watching the July 15 report for concrete order and delivery detail and guidance carry‑forward.