Overview
- ASML reported a record third quarter and on Wednesday raised its full‑year 2026 sales guidance to €44–45 billion while guiding Q4 sales of €14.2–15.2 billion and a gross margin near 57%.
- Management said customer demand driven by AI will exceed the company’s planned supply in 2027 and 2028 and that some customers are already discussing orders for 2029 and 2030.
- To address the shortfall ASML is weighing additional steps beyond the 30% capacity increases announced for 2027 and 2028, including expanding its Eindhoven facilities, selling higher‑throughput tool variants, upgrading installed machines, and raising prices starting in 2027.
- Geopolitical limits on exports to China and proposed U.S. measures that could further restrict sales or servicing are material risks that could speed China’s own tech push and complicate ASML’s market access.
- ASML’s unique hold on EUV lithography, its recurring service revenue from a large installed base, and a premium stock valuation raise the stakes for timely execution because missed shipments or order delays would push revenue out and amplify investor downside.