Overview
- Hayes argues Bitcoin’s drop from its October 2025 peak while the Nasdaq stays flat is a “global fiat liquidity fire alarm” pointing to tightening dollar liquidity.
- He estimates that a 20% displacement of America’s 72.1 million knowledge workers by AI would produce roughly $330 billion in consumer credit losses and $227 billion in mortgage losses, with regional banks bearing the brunt.
- He outlines a two-stage path with a deflationary repricing and bank stress before an eventual Federal Reserve liquidity response akin to March 2023, after which he expects Bitcoin to reach new highs.
- He warns Bitcoin could fall below $60,000 in the near term and advises investors to remain liquid, avoid leverage, and wait for a clear policy pivot from the Fed.
- He cites early signals such as software/SaaS underperformance, staples gaining on discretionary, rising credit‑card delinquencies, and gold’s strength versus Bitcoin, and says his fund plans to buy Zcash and Hyperliquid when liquidity returns.