Overview
- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published an essay arguing that a longer US engagement in Iran increases the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts or renewed money printing.
- He points to a pattern since 1985 in which major US Middle East conflicts were followed by easier policy, citing the 1990 Gulf War, post‑9/11 emergency cuts, and the 2009 Afghanistan surge.
- Hayes advises investors to wait for clear Fed action before adding risk, saying the better entry is after a confirmed rate cut or the restart of quantitative easing.
- Bitcoin traded near $66,200 at publication, about 47% below its October 2025 peak, following a five‑month slide and sharp weekend swings tied to Iran headlines.
- Broader markets were largely calm, with US stocks down less than 1% and oil giving back early gains after US‑Israeli strikes in Iran that reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.