Overview
- In an Oct. 9 essay titled “Long Live the King!,” Hayes argues prior bear markets stemmed from monetary tightening rather than halving-timed cycles.
- Bitcoin trades near $122,000 after a recent ~$126,000 high as spot ETFs report heavy demand, including $899 million into BlackRock’s IBIT on Oct. 7 and an eighth straight net inflow day on Oct. 8.
- K33 Research reaches a similar conclusion that institutional flows and macro policy now dominate, while flagging short‑term heat after a >63,000 BTC weekly jump in derivatives and ETF exposure and rising CME futures open interest.
- Dissenting voices, including Glassnode, Gemini’s Saad Ahmed, and trader Peter Brandt, say price action still echoes elements of past cycles and could be nearing a timing window for a peak.
- The macro backdrop cited includes a Federal Reserve rate cut in September with markets expecting further easing, plus China’s shift toward ending deflation rather than draining liquidity.