Arthur Hayes Calls Crypto a 'No-Trade Zone,' Waits for Fed Cue

Overview

• Hayes, in an April 15 essay, said he has barely traded this year and labeled the crypto market a “no-trade zone.”
• He cited two pressures driving that stance: AI systems replacing office workers and rising U.S.–Iran friction over the Strait of Hormuz.
• He outlined three war scenarios that he says all end in money printing and said he will not add Bitcoin until the Federal Reserve signals easing, using a MOVE Index reading above 130 as his cue; the MOVE Index tracks swings in U.S. Treasury bonds.
• Bitcoin gained more than 7% over the week to trade above $75,000, yet he is buying only gold and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token, which rose about 18% to $45.31 as he points to a coming HIP-4 launch as a possible catalyst.
• He warned that rapid AI-driven cuts could trigger household loan defaults and bank stress, citing a gaming CEO who used AI to finish six months of work in four days and then cut half the staff.