Overview
- ARK’s Big Ideas 2026 report sets a base case that bitcoin’s market value reaches about $16 trillion by 2030, up from roughly $1.5 trillion today.
- The firm links the path to broader institutional use through ETFs, corporate and sovereign treasuries, and new bitcoin services such as layer-2 networks and the Lightning payments system.
- After gold’s 2025 rally, ARK raises the total market it targets for the “digital gold” use case to $24.4 trillion and cuts its emerging‑market safe‑haven assumption by 80% because stablecoins are absorbing that demand.
- Institutional ownership is climbing as U.S. ETFs and public companies hold about 12% of bitcoin’s supply, up from about 9% a year earlier.
- Even a 2.5% allocation from an estimated $200 trillion global investment pool could add roughly $5 trillion to bitcoin’s value, according to ARK’s analysis.