Overview
- The Treasury failed to fully renew a large set of peso maturities in its auction on Friday, June 26, rolling over ARS 13.2 trillion of roughly ARS 16.2–16.3 trillion due, a renewal rate of 81 percent that injected extra pesos into the market.
- The official wholesale peso-dollar rate has climbed for a second week to around ARS 1,477, a roughly 5 percent rise in June that traders say could continue into July as seasonal outflows and World Cup and aguinaldo spending boost dollar demand.
- The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) remains a net buyer of dollars in 2026 with over USD 11 billion accumulated, but its intervention pace has moderated recently and weekly gross reserves fell about USD 287 million, reducing immediate buffer room.
- Household demand for dollars has been structural since the April 2025 easing of controls, with near USD 39 billion bought by individuals through the official market so far, and market participants say this retail demand underpins parallel and financial rate rises.
- Analysts warn the combination of released pesos from the partial rollover, weaker reserve accumulation, lower agroexport inflows and negative real interest rates could push the peso lower and squeeze markets and borrowers in the coming weeks.