Overview
- The official retail dollar closed near $1,515 and the wholesale rate reached about $1,492 on Tuesday, marking the highest nominal levels so far in 2026 and narrowing the gap with the informal 'blue' market.
- The BCRA continued a long run of net FX buying, purchasing roughly USD 81 million in the latest session and lifting reserves to about USD 48–49 billion, which helped calm markets and support the peso.
- The central bank's June REM revised up year‑end exchange‑rate expectations with a median wholesale projection around $1,673 for December 2026 and a Top‑10 panel estimate near $1,621, while forecasters also trimmed projected monthly inflation for June to about 2.0%.
- Economy officials unveiled a Plan Financiero for 2026–2027 that relies on local dollar issuances, multilateral loans and reserve accumulation; the announcement briefly pushed the JP Morgan country risk index down to roughly 405–406 but leaves execution risk for 2027 financing and the electoral year.
- Broader pressures behind the moves include a stronger global dollar after shifts in commodity and geopolitical dynamics and seasonal drops in agro dollar sales, and commentators in Mexico warn that trade‑rule uncertainty from annual USMCA reviews could affect regional investment even as nearshoring offers growth if infrastructure and skills are upgraded.