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Argentina’s October Transfers to Provinces Show Sharp Discretionary Drop, Mild Automatic Gain

New data point to constrained funding that fuels upcoming talks with Interior Minister Diego Santilli over restoring resources without endangering the fiscal surplus.

Overview

  • National transfers totaled $5.711 trillion in October, with $5,485,076 million in automatic flows and $226,109 million in discretionary funds, implying an overall real decline of about 0.6% versus a year earlier.
  • Discretionary transfers fell 28.7% in real terms year over year, marking the weakest October in roughly two decades, with a steep 56.7% real drop to CABA tied to lower payments under a Supreme Court precautionary measure.
  • From January to October, discretionary transfers are at their second-lowest level since 2005 and roughly 70% below 2023, while CABA concentrated 51.9% of these funds year to date.
  • Automatic transfers rose about 1% in real terms in October, with coparticipation up 1.5% on stronger income-tax receipts, though Córdoba and Santa Fe registered slight real declines within the month’s distribution.
  • Large percentage increases reported in some provinces reflect very low comparison bases (Catamarca +9,629% but just 0.6% of October’s total), and ATN distributions reached $13,000 million to five provinces during the month.