Overview
- On Thursday, June 11, INDEC reported May consumer inflation at 2.1% and core inflation at 1.9%, bringing the January–May cumulative rise to 14.7% and the 12‑month rate to 33.2%.
- Analysts and private consultancies said tighter monetary policy, a stable exchange rate and a temporary YPF fuel price buffer helped slow monthly inflation for May.
- Separate April sectoral data from INDEC showed the Manufacturing Production Index fell 2.8% year‑on‑year and the Synthetic Indicator of Construction Activity fell 2.8% year‑on‑year and 4.0% month‑to‑month, erasing March’s brief rebound.
- The May reading will change automatic ANSES adjustments for pensions and transfers, while private forecasts and the BCRA’s REM still expect a much higher year‑end inflation than the government’s Budget projection.
- Key near‑term risks include renewed food and regulated‑price pressure, the fragility of a weak industry and construction recovery, and the IMF’s critique of INDEC’s outdated CPI methodology, which raises questions about statistical representativeness.