Overview
- A joint CAEM and BCR report projects mining exports to exceed US$9 billion in 2026, a rise of more than 50% from the US$6,075 million exported in 2025 and enough to lift the sector above 10% of national exports.
- Lithium is the main driver of the forecast, with estimated production of 172,000 tonnes LCE for 2026 and an assumed average export price of US$14.9 per kilogram that would raise lithium receipts to about US$2.56 billion.
- Official INDEC data show mining production at a series high in April 2026, with the IPI minero up 9.5% year‑on‑year, confirming stronger output through the first four months of the year.
- Foreign direct investment in mining hit a record US$17.645 billion at end‑2025 and surged during 2025, supporting new projects and plans for large copper developments that could sustain growth beyond the lithium boom.
- Analysts urge caution because the projection depends on commodity prices and rising lithium volumes, gold physical output is declining, and the export gains are concentrated in a few provinces and buyers which shapes regional and currency risks.