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Argentina's Exports Surge as Energy and Gold Narrow Gap With Grain

Higher oil, gold and grain sales are lifting full‑year export forecasts toward US$95–100 billion and improving the trade balance despite a contracting domestic manufacturing sector.

Overview

  • The agroindustrial complex shipped a record 52.8 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, a 9% rise from a year earlier driven by bigger wheat, maize and sunflower flows through the Gran Rosario port hub.
  • Agro export revenues totaled about US$26.98 billion in H1, up 17.3% year‑on‑year, with sunflower, beef and wheat among the top contributors to the gain.
  • Rapid growth in petroleum and gold pushed total merchandise exports to roughly US$49.45 billion in H1 and prompted private forecasts that 2026 exports could reach about US$95–100 billion.
  • Industry data estimate a 1.8% year‑on‑year fall in industrial activity in June and a negative first‑semester balance, with petroleum refining expanding while automotive and construction output weaken and some plants report gas shortages and higher fuel costs.
  • Key risks for the second half include weaker commodity prices, port and logistics concentration around Gran Rosario, possible moderation in energy shipments from Vaca Muerta, and pressure on manufacturing jobs and local supply chains that could blunt the export gains.