Argentina’s Economy Rebounds Strongly in March Driven by Agriculture and Fishing

Overview

• Indec’s monthly activity indicator showed a 5.5% year-on-year increase in March and a 3.5% rise from February, data released on Thursday that beat the median analyst forecast of about 2.1% year-on-year.
• Fourteen of the 15 sectors that make up the EMAE rose in March, with fishing up roughly 30.9% year-on-year and agriculture, livestock and forestry up about 17.9%, making primary production the main driver of the rebound.
• Reports differ on the size of February’s drop, with some summaries citing a 2.1% monthly contraction and others 2.7%, a discrepancy that highlights seasonal adjustments and measurement differences in short-term series.
• Monthly inflation slowed to 2.6% in April, and economists surveyed by the central bank have revised their 2026 outlook to around 30.5% inflation and roughly 2.8% GDP growth.
• Economy Minister Luis Caputo has signaled an expected pickup in May and June, but analysts warn the recovery may be volatile because farm and fishing seasons can cause big swings and because inflation and forecasts were recently revised.