Overview
- Registered employment is contracting as more workers shift into semi‑formal monotributo arrangements.
- Company balance sheets are weakening under changing relative prices and rising import competition, with consumer durables and autos showing strong import growth.
- The government is holding the exchange rate as an anti‑inflation anchor, which risks a quick real appreciation with monthly inflation near 3%, hurting competitiveness.
- Tax collection is falling even as fiscal adjustment leans on spending restraint, adding pressure to the outlook.
- Inflation is expected to print high in February and March on meat, fuels, education and tariffs, with a possible slowdown by April if the exchange scheme persists.