Particle.news
Download on the App Store

Argentina's Disinflation Slows as December Inflation Picks Up and Central Bank Rebuilds Reserves

Analysts now forecast roughly 24% inflation for 2026, far above the government's 10.1% goal.

Overview

  • Official data show 2025 inflation at 31.5%, the lowest since 2017, but December rose 2.8% month over month with core near 3%, signaling persistent inertia.
  • The Central Bank logged nine straight days of FX purchases, accumulating about USD 562 million so far in January as the official dollar eased and risk indicators improved.
  • From January, INDEC’s updated CPI basket increases the weight of services, a change that economists say could mechanically nudge monthly readings higher.
  • Key risks highlighted by analysts include a faster exchange-rate or tariff adjustment and a heavy debt rollover near USD 20 billion that could strain the disinflation path.
  • Markets show renewed appetite for carry-trade strategies and inflation-linked assets, and the IMF’s spokesperson welcomed Argentina’s recent reserve-building efforts while investors await the 2025 fiscal result.