Overview
- Official data showed a small monthly rebound in some retail channels in May, with supermarkets up 0.9% and shopping centers rising, but those gains did not persist into June.
- Private monitors reported broader weakness in June, with Scentia estimating mass consumption down about 2.7% year‑on‑year and several high‑frequency trackers finding most indicators in negative territory.
- Industry remains soft: metalworking fell 4.6% year‑on‑year in June, capacity use sits near 40.8%, and many manufacturing segments continue to run well below pre‑2024 levels.
- Digital channels are the clear growth pocket as e‑commerce surged roughly 41% year‑on‑year in June and digital wallets and QR payments expanded rapidly while credit cards account for a growing share of supermarket sales.
- The overall picture shows a split economy where export and fiscal improvements have strengthened financial metrics, but stagnant wages, weak credit and falling consumer confidence make a broad recovery in household demand unlikely soon.