Overview
- The IPOM warns that seasonal effects, utility tariff adjustments and INDEC’s new CPI basket could add volatility to inflation in the first quarter, including typical March increases in education and clothing.
- To meet the 2026 primary surplus goal, the BCRA estimates an additional adjustment of about 0.5% of GDP, focusing potential cuts on public salaries, subsidies, social plans, and goods and services.
- The Central Bank reaffirms a monetary-aggregates framework without an explicit inflation target and expects remonetization as demand for pesos recovers.
- Reserves accumulation has restarted, with more than USD 1.1 billion purchased in January and a baseline plan to buy roughly USD 10 billion over 2026, subject to money demand and FX supply.
- The report discloses a gap in net reserves accounting, showing USD 2.9 billion positive on the BCRA balance versus USD 14.1 billion negative under the IMF metric at end-2025, prompting a waiver request in the upcoming review.