Overview
- INDEC’s EMAE rose 0.3% month over month in August and 2.4% year over year, with activity up 5.2% in January–August versus 2024.
- The EMAE trend-cycle slipped 0.1% in August as Torcuato Di Tella’s Leading Index fell for a sixth month, putting recession probability near 98%.
- Growth was narrowly based: financial intermediation surged 26.5% year over year and mining 9.3%, while manufacturing fell 5.1% and commerce 1.7%.
- IIEP (UBA‑CONICET) estimates an unsubsidized AMBA household spent $170,412 on utilities and transport in October, with the services basket up 514% since December 2023 versus 171% inflation.
- Subsidy outlays were 6.1% of primary spending in January–September (down 54% year over year) and officials aim to cut them to about 0.50% of GDP in 2026 as incomes lag, indebtedness and delinquency hit records, and mass consumption weakens.