Overview
- Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario projects total grain output at 160 million tonnes for 2025/26, with wheat at 29.5Mt, barley 5.6Mt, corn 62Mt, sunflower 6.6Mt, and soy 48Mt on reduced area.
- Exportable supply is seen lifting shipments to about 113Mt, nearly 10Mt above the 2018/19 peak, generating an estimated $34.53 billion through the official FX market in 2026.
- The 2026 FX take is roughly in line with 2025’s $34.6 billion reported by the central bank, or $36.16 billion when factoring in early-2025 “dólar blend” operations.
- Late-2025 inflows were depressed by September’s temporary removal of export duties and earlier exchange-rate incentives, and BCR forecasts monthly liquidations above the five-year average as the coarse-grain harvest starts.
- Export duties from the six main agro complexes are projected near $4.65 billion in 2026, led by soy at $3.42 billion, with corn at $720 million, wheat $300 million, and sunflower $115 million, assuming December’s lower rates persist.