Overview
- Official Brazilian data show imports from Brazil rose 30.7% to US$18.155 billion in 2025 while exports to Brazil fell 4.6% to US$12.955 billion, yielding the largest bilateral shortfall since 2017.
- In December, Argentina posted a US$26 million monthly surplus with Brazil after 17 straight months in deficit as imports dropped 19.6% year over year versus a 14.1% fall in exports, according to the CAC.
- Abeceb reports the automotive sector accounted for roughly 69% of the import surge and 76% of the export decline, with passenger-vehicle imports up 76.6%, road vehicles up 150.5%, and passenger-vehicle exports down 27.9%.
- The bilateral gap generated a net outflow of dollars that added pressure on Central Bank reserves during a year of strong domestic demand and higher purchases of vehicles and autoparts.
- Analysts expect the 2026 deficit to hover near US$5 billion as Brazil’s growth cools and a firmer real improves Argentina’s bilateral real exchange rate, easing import pressure but limiting export traction.