Overview
- Argentina set a new national oil production record in May 2026, reaching 903,700 barrels per day with Vaca Muerta supplying about 69% of output.
- Fuel and energy exports jumped to roughly USD 1,745 million in May, helping the sector post a record monthly trade surplus of about USD 1,543 million.
- Global Brent crude dropped from near USD 100 during the Middle East crisis to about USD 70–75, prompting companies to reassess plans but leaving most core Vaca Muerta projects above Aleph Energy’s estimated breakevens of USD 48–61 per barrel.
- Transport capacity is the main near-term constraint: the VMOS pipeline’s first stage is expected to add about 180,000 bpd of evacuation capacity and could help Argentina approach one million bpd by late 2026 or early 2027.
- Macroeconomic stakes are rising because each dollar change in Brent shifts export dollars materially, and a bank warns sustained lower prices could cut foreign-currency inflows, pressure the peso, and push domestic interest rates higher, making RIGI rules central to investment choices.