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Argentina Sets 2026 Inflation-Linked FX Bands as Markets Hold Steady Ahead of Policy Shift

Investors now focus on reserve accumulation ahead of a large January bond payment.

Overview

  • The central bank confirmed that from January 1, 2026 the exchange-rate bands will move with CPI using a two-month lag, replacing the fixed 1% monthly adjustment.
  • A preannounced reserve build-up plan will allow BCRA to buy dollars in the MULC, with a 2026 target near US$10 billion and a potential US$17 billion if money demand permits.
  • The Treasury accelerated hard-currency purchases in December, raising its dollar deposits at the central bank from about US$97 million to nearly US$2 billion to prepare for roughly US$4.2 billion due on January 9.
  • Market indicators were broadly stable on Monday: the Banco Nación retail dollar held at $1,475, the wholesale rate hovered near $1,452–$1,453, and country risk sat around 569–573 basis points after a week of firmer bond prices.
  • Consultancies sketched 2026 dollar paths under the new rule, with a base case for the upper band near $1,915 by year-end and a higher-inflation scenario nearing $2,000, highlighting reliance on disinflation and financing access.