Overview
- Private‑credit nonperforming loans rose sharply from about 2% in late 2024 to roughly 9.7% by May 2026, while household delinquency reached about 16%, according to multiple consultancy analyses.
- Analysts say roughly 5.8 million adults were in arrears in May 2026, representing about 28% of those with formal credit and signaling broad exclusion from new lending.
- Non‑bank lenders carry the worst losses: over half of their roughly 5.3 million clients were reported in arrears, and about 1.3 million people were delinquent with both banks and non‑bank providers.
- Younger borrowers are disproportionately affected, with only about 40% of 18–29 year‑olds having formal credit and roughly 40% of those young borrowers in arrears, rising to about 50% for those using only non‑bank credit.
- Consultancies agree the root causes are lower real and disposable incomes, a shift from formal salaried work to lower‑paid informal jobs, and higher real interest costs, and they warn that without income recovery bank refinancing schemes will not restore the damaged credit channel.