Overview
- INDEC confirmed a 1.9% national consumer price rise for June, the third monthly slowdown after a March peak and a result most consultoras and the government had anticipated.
- The June print mechanically raises the FX band ceiling for the last business day of August to roughly $1,879.92 under the two‑month lag rule used since January.
- To blunt peso volatility in July, the Treasury and the BCRA sold futures and dollar‑linked bonds worth more than US$1 billion and moderated reserve purchases while keeping the official retail dollar above $1,500.
- Global developments helped but left risks: US June inflation eased to 3.5% with a monthly drop of 0.4%, which eased external price pressure, while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz keep energy and inflation upside risks alive.
- Domestic vulnerabilities persist as first‑half inflation totals about 16.8% and annual inflation nears 33.5%, wages lag and consumption is weak, so continued disinflation will depend on sustained FX stability, reserve trends and external shocks.