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Argentina Projects Record Grain Harvest as Fertilizer Shock Tightens Planting Plans

Urea near US$1,000 a ton is forcing growers in the core zone to cut winter sowing plans by 17%.

Overview

  • The government pegs the 2025/26 main-grains crop at a record 163.395 million tonnes led by maize with wheat recovering.
  • Maize is projected at 67.6 million tonnes on 11.2 million hectares with an average yield near 7.1 tonnes per hectare.
  • Wheat is projected at 27.9 million tonnes on 7 million hectares with an average yield near 4.1 tonnes per hectare.
  • Rosario’s GEA reports a 300,000-hectare drop in intended winter sowing in the core farm belt after urea doubled to about US$1,000 a ton and rents rose.
  • Advisers urge tighter management with precise fertilization, careful variety placement, cover or legume crops to build nitrogen, and rent renegotiation to protect margins.