Overview
- May trade data released on June 19 showed goods exports of USD 9,537 million and a monthly trade surplus of USD 3,504 million, the highest on record.
- The energy balance recorded a USD 1,543 million surplus in May as rising oil and gas shipments from Vaca Muerta and lower fuel imports sharply boosted energy exports.
- Official INDEC figures for April and private reports for May show household spending is still falling, with supermarket sales down 3.7% year‑on‑year, mayoristas down about 5%, and private consumption slipping for a sixth consecutive month.
- Industry is contracting: the UIA’s estimate shows manufacturing fell about 5% year‑on‑year in May while imports of production inputs have declined for several months and sit roughly 20% below 2023 levels.
- Economists warn the surplus partly reflects weak domestic demand and compressed input imports rather than a broad recovery, and business surveys show firms are cautious with orders and hiring, creating risk that export gains will not quickly translate into jobs or higher local production.