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Argentina Posts Q3 Growth, Avoids Technical Recession

Exports led the advance under persistent inflation.

Overview

  • Indec reported GDP up 3.3% year on year and 0.3% quarter on quarter in Q3 2025, missing the 0.5% QoQ Bloomberg consensus.
  • Strong real export growth drove the expansion, with smaller contributions from household spending and government outlays.
  • Investment signals conflicted, as Indec’s breakdown showed fixed capital formation up 10.3% while other coverage cited a roughly 6% quarterly drop.
  • Economic activity was 5.2% higher in the year to September compared with the same period in 2024.
  • Price pressures remained elevated, with the GDP implicit price index up 36.3% year on year and consumer inflation at 31.4% over 12 months.