Overview
- The central bank has been buying dollars in the spot market and using futures and dollar‑linked bonds to hold the wholesale rate just under the informal $1,500 level, with spot prints around $1,495–$1,496.50.
- Gross reserves have risen to about USD 50 billion as the BCRA accumulated foreign currency through several buyer days, strengthening its visible firepower to intervene in FX markets.
- The Treasury rolled large local debt and withdrew around AR$3.76 trillion in late July, which tightened peso liquidity and pushed short‑term interest rates sharply higher, raising credit costs for households and firms.
- Investors have shifted into dollar‑linked and dual instruments, with the TAMAR dual bond drawing about USD 3,467 million in a recent placement and futures pricing implying gradual depreciation to roughly $1,513 by end‑August and $1,623 by December.
- Markets are watching the BCRA's REM, July CPI data that will reset band ceilings, the seasonal drop in agro dollar inflows in August, and sizable 2027 maturities as the main near‑term tests of whether the strategy can be sustained.