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Arctic Contest Deepens With RussiaChina Moves and South Korea’s 2026 Shipping Plan

Longer ice‑free seasons plus Red Sea disruptions are elevating the Northern Sea Route into a viable corridor reshaping security and trade.

Overview

  • Russia and China have increased coordinated activity in the High North with joint patrols and long‑range bomber flights, a shift NATO leaders say challenges past U.S. dominance.
  • Northern Sea Route traffic surged in 2025 to more than 80 distinct ships completing about 100 full transits, including larger container vessels that reached U.K. ports in October.
  • South Korea elevated Arctic policy by moving its Oceans and Fisheries Ministry to Busan and announcing 2026 container voyages, which it says depend on navigation arrangements with Russia.
  • Russia is expanding Arctic infrastructure and boosting Yamal LNG shipments to China, strengthening its control over access, energy flows and coastal logistics.
  • U.S. pressure over Greenland, including tariff threats reported by European outlets, has triggered EU pushback through its anti‑coercion instrument and widened transatlantic strains.