Overview
- The study, published Thursday, calculates the Aral Sea released about 748 million metric tons of CO₂ between 1960 and 2022 and estimates roughly 605 million tons remain stored in exposed sediments and at risk of future release.
- Researchers measured two main pathways for emissions: oxygen-driven microbial decomposition when sediments are exposed and wind-driven loss of sediment, with wind erosion accounting for about 20% of the total emissions.
- Field work relied on 2022 sediment sampling with cores limited to roughly 50 centimeters, a constraint the authors say could underestimate totals and that they plan to address with deeper drilling in follow-up expeditions.
- To halt future releases the paper argues re-wetting the bed is essential because revegetation in this arid setting captures almost no CO₂, and it models a funding route that converts avoided emissions into tradable carbon credits to underwrite restoration.
- The authors estimate about €8.5 billion of irrigation modernization could restore roughly half of the 1960 lake area and generate about 323 million tons of CO₂-equivalent credits but note implementation faces technical, verification and cross-border political hurdles and could reshape emissions accounting for other shrinking inland waters.