Overview
- Counterpoint Research projects Apple will ship about 243 million iPhones in 2025 for a 19.4% share, edging Samsung’s roughly 235 million shipments and 18.7% share.
- The figures reflect units shipped to retail channels rather than final consumer sales, serving as a gauge of vendor demand planning.
- iPhone 17 launch momentum lifted early demand, with launch‑month sales about 12% higher in the U.S. and 18% higher in China versus the iPhone 16 series.
- Analysts cite a replacement‑cycle inflection and a large refurbished base—358 million second‑hand iPhones sold between 2023 and Q2 2025—as key drivers of upgrades.
- Counterpoint expects Apple to retain the top spot through 2029, with potential tailwinds from a lower‑cost iPhone 17e, a 2026 foldable, and a 2027 redesign, while Samsung pursues growth with Galaxy A in emerging markets and premium and foldable devices in mature markets.