Overview
- Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk published detailed estimates in early August showing hyperscaler data‑center capex rose from about 0.3% of U.S. GDP in 2019 to roughly 1.4% in 2025 and could reach about 3.1% by 2027.
- Sløk says the rate of change in AI infrastructure spending is close to twice the fastest annual pace of the 2000s housing expansion, even though the absolute share of GDP remains far below housing’s peak.
- He warned that a cycle that builds quickly can unwind quickly and that the principal macro risk is a swift reversal in spending rather than the buildout itself.
- Because spending on GPUs and data centers is not financed through mortgage‑style securities, Sløk says losses from a pullback would concentrate on suppliers such as chipmakers, energy firms, data‑center REITs and smaller software vendors.
- The buildout is already shifting hiring and profits into construction, power and hardware supply chains, and markets now watch whether enterprise and consumer AI demand will justify continued multiyear heavy capex.