Overview
- The University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll, published Wednesday, found Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 22 percent and Pete Buttigieg at 21 percent among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire.
- On the Republican side the same poll put Vice President JD Vance at 36 percent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 26 percent after a large month-to-month swing that cut Vance’s lead.
- The survey was conducted July 15–20 with 1,458 New Hampshire respondents and an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points, making it an early-state snapshot rather than a national forecast.
- UNH pollsters said Ocasio-Cortez’s gains come mainly from self-described socialists and progressives while Buttigieg draws a broader mix of progressives, liberals, and moderates, and Rubio’s gains are strongest with moderates and libertarians.
- Whether these New Hampshire shifts matter beyond the state depends on a still-unresolved DNC decision about the 2028 primary calendar and on next steps by candidates, endorsements, and campaign activity that could quickly reshape the race.